How to calculate your risk of having a heart attack in the next 10 years
Original post by DanW
I was just browsing some heart health sites this evening and came across this 10-year heart attack risk calculator. It only takes about 10 seconds. You just answer a few questions, and it provides you with an estimate of your odds of having a heart attack in the next 10 years (i.e. 1 in 100, etc.) It also tells you how much you can cut that risk by making some healthy lifestyle changes.
I love little applications like this, though this one certainly has the potential to be a little scary. If you’re scared out of your wits by the reading you get, maybe it’ll be a good motivational tool to make some changes. I wasn’t exactly comfortable with mine, but, mainly because of my age, it wasn’t too bad. I played around with it quite a bit, though, and it’s, well, enlightening.
Response from DanW
I found another calculator and tried it out, with moderately different results. Just goes to show that there’s only so much a little calculator can do. Still, they’re both interesting and informative. Incidentally, this one puts me at higher risk, so I think I’ll stick with the first one. (wink) If anyone else tries them both out, I’d be interested to hear how consistent you found them. Don’t worry, you don’t need to tell us your exact numbers if you don’t want to.
Response from PaulaWKY
I did try the first one out Dan but couldn’t get an accurate reading because of my own “ignorance” when it comes to all my stats. About the only thing I do know is while I was pregnant I had everything checked regularly. My blood pressure was always normal to borderline while pregnant but while not pregnant when I’ve checked, it has been good. I don’t normally check it on a regular basis though. My cholesterol I honestly have no idea.
I did find it interesting after I looked at my results using “what I think my stats are” how just lowering your cholesterol alone could reduce your chance of heart disease by 46%. That is a huge number (almost 50% to me that is a big wow).
It also stated that BMI makes a difference as well, though I don’t think it said how much of a difference it makes. For me I know if that was factored in it would probably change my results quite a bit.
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Paula W.
Community Moderator
ADHD, Autism, Cancer, Parenting & Children’s Health, Diet, Weight Loss and Nutrition Communities
Response from DanW
Hi Paula. I thought the lack of BMI in both calculators was a bit odd, too. Just guessing, but I think that calculators ignore BMI because a) BMI is an issue of some contention, and b) an unhealthy BMI’s effects are probably most directly related to high blood pressure, which the calculator takes into effect.
That said the American Heart Association has a more complete calculator, that also provides more information about risk factors and even gives you a plan for reducing your risk—it also discusses metabolic syndrome. It takes a little longer, but not much. The main problem is that you also need to know more information (triglycerides level, etc.), so for those of us who don’t have all this information, the more detailed calculators provide limited additional usefulness.
Well, actually, I guess they’re pretty useful in at least one way: they point out how little we know about some key health information that we really should know about ourselves. If you, like I, don’t have all these health stats, it’s time to get to a doctor or clinic and get the necessary tests.
Response from PaulaWKY
I agree with you completely. The thing I took away most from doing this is that I need to get into a doctor and have all of these things checked, especially the things I know nothing about like my cholesterol level.
Signature
Paula W.
Community Moderator
ADHD, Autism, Cancer, Parenting & Children’s Health, Diet, Weight Loss and Nutrition Communities
Response from Ajay Nair
A colleague at one of the Boston area hospitals recently did a comparative study of risk calculators found on various websites. The study is still going on, but she tells me that for the exact same information entered on different websites she got completely different estimates. This is because these calculators are based on numbers culled from different research studies.
That said the AHA calculator posted by Dan seems like the best of the lot. Most diseases/disorders have many many causes that contribute. Generally the more information you have the better your ability to predict something(common sense I guess).
Signature
Ajay Nair, WEGO Health Expert
Response from DanW
My experience with different calculators was similar, though the results were at least fairly close. I do like the AHA calculator, though I’m somewhat ashamed to admit that I still don’t have the all information it requires. (red face) As long as you use one consistently, however, I think it could be a great motivational tool. Once you get your baseline result, you can then track how it improves with any lifestyle changes you make.
"Generally the more information you have the better your ability to predict something(common sense I guess)."
Common sense, yes, but it’s amazing how often that fact seems to go ignored in politics, economics, and just about everything else. Take peanut allergies in Britain, for example.
Response from Ajay Nair
"As long as you use one consistently, however, I think it could be a great motivational tool. Once you get your baseline result, you can then track how it improves with any lifestyle changes you make."
That is a GREAT idea!
There is a lot of evidence out there on Cardivascular risk factors to give you some level of confidence in a calculator if you use one consistently.
Interesting tidbit - Framingham,MA a few miles south of Boston is the location of a long running heart study that gave us some of the best data on heart diseases.
Signature
Ajay Nair, WEGO Health Expert
Response from Felisha Griffin, MSPH
There is also a lot of great new tools available to help you evaluate your risk of heart disease or stroke. I worked closely with an epidemiologist at GlaxoSmithKline on several epidemiological studies to evaluate the role of a novel enzyme (Lp-PLA2) in heart disease and stroke. It was very interesting work. The FDA has actually approved the use of the PLAC test to assess the risk of heart disease. This could be a useful tool with the aid of more traditional test.
Signature
Felisha Griffin, MSPH
Response from Julia
My scores with these online tests weren’t very conclusive. I, too, was surprised at the lack of BMI questions. According to these tests I am not very at risk. However, I know that I am, due to my family history, and my current weight.
I just saw a doctor about a lump in my breast, which is a benign mass called a fibroadenoma. The doctor took out a calculator that can predict one’s risk of breast cancer. My risk is quite low.
However, when I told her of my family history of heart problems on both sides of my family (my dad passed away from a heart attack 2 weeks ago, and my grandfather has some heart problems), she said that heart disease is what I need to watch out for.
We hear so much about breast cancer scares, but heart disease is the #1 killer of women!
Signature
Julia Temlyn
WEGO Health Community Moderator
Skin & Beauty, Women’s Health, Sleep Problems, and Pregnancy & Infertility
I was just browsing some heart health sites this evening and came across this 10-year heart attack risk calculator. It only takes about 10 seconds. You just answer a few questions, and it provides you with an estimate of your odds of having a heart attack in the next 10 years (i.e. 1 in 100, etc.) It also tells you how much you can cut that risk by making some healthy lifestyle changes.
I love little applications like this, though this one certainly has the potential to be a little scary. If you’re scared out of your wits by the reading you get, maybe it’ll be a good motivational tool to make some changes. I wasn’t exactly comfortable with mine, but, mainly because of my age, it wasn’t too bad. I played around with it quite a bit, though, and it’s, well, enlightening.
Response from DanW
I found another calculator and tried it out, with moderately different results. Just goes to show that there’s only so much a little calculator can do. Still, they’re both interesting and informative. Incidentally, this one puts me at higher risk, so I think I’ll stick with the first one. (wink) If anyone else tries them both out, I’d be interested to hear how consistent you found them. Don’t worry, you don’t need to tell us your exact numbers if you don’t want to.
Response from PaulaWKY
I did try the first one out Dan but couldn’t get an accurate reading because of my own “ignorance” when it comes to all my stats. About the only thing I do know is while I was pregnant I had everything checked regularly. My blood pressure was always normal to borderline while pregnant but while not pregnant when I’ve checked, it has been good. I don’t normally check it on a regular basis though. My cholesterol I honestly have no idea.
I did find it interesting after I looked at my results using “what I think my stats are” how just lowering your cholesterol alone could reduce your chance of heart disease by 46%. That is a huge number (almost 50% to me that is a big wow).
It also stated that BMI makes a difference as well, though I don’t think it said how much of a difference it makes. For me I know if that was factored in it would probably change my results quite a bit.
Signature
Paula W.
Community Moderator
ADHD, Autism, Cancer, Parenting & Children’s Health, Diet, Weight Loss and Nutrition Communities
Response from DanW
Hi Paula. I thought the lack of BMI in both calculators was a bit odd, too. Just guessing, but I think that calculators ignore BMI because a) BMI is an issue of some contention, and b) an unhealthy BMI’s effects are probably most directly related to high blood pressure, which the calculator takes into effect.
That said the American Heart Association has a more complete calculator, that also provides more information about risk factors and even gives you a plan for reducing your risk—it also discusses metabolic syndrome. It takes a little longer, but not much. The main problem is that you also need to know more information (triglycerides level, etc.), so for those of us who don’t have all this information, the more detailed calculators provide limited additional usefulness.
Well, actually, I guess they’re pretty useful in at least one way: they point out how little we know about some key health information that we really should know about ourselves. If you, like I, don’t have all these health stats, it’s time to get to a doctor or clinic and get the necessary tests.
Response from PaulaWKY
I agree with you completely. The thing I took away most from doing this is that I need to get into a doctor and have all of these things checked, especially the things I know nothing about like my cholesterol level.
Signature
Paula W.
Community Moderator
ADHD, Autism, Cancer, Parenting & Children’s Health, Diet, Weight Loss and Nutrition Communities
Response from Ajay Nair
A colleague at one of the Boston area hospitals recently did a comparative study of risk calculators found on various websites. The study is still going on, but she tells me that for the exact same information entered on different websites she got completely different estimates. This is because these calculators are based on numbers culled from different research studies.
That said the AHA calculator posted by Dan seems like the best of the lot. Most diseases/disorders have many many causes that contribute. Generally the more information you have the better your ability to predict something(common sense I guess).
Signature
Ajay Nair, WEGO Health Expert
Response from DanW
My experience with different calculators was similar, though the results were at least fairly close. I do like the AHA calculator, though I’m somewhat ashamed to admit that I still don’t have the all information it requires. (red face) As long as you use one consistently, however, I think it could be a great motivational tool. Once you get your baseline result, you can then track how it improves with any lifestyle changes you make.
"Generally the more information you have the better your ability to predict something(common sense I guess)."
Common sense, yes, but it’s amazing how often that fact seems to go ignored in politics, economics, and just about everything else. Take peanut allergies in Britain, for example.
Response from Ajay Nair
"As long as you use one consistently, however, I think it could be a great motivational tool. Once you get your baseline result, you can then track how it improves with any lifestyle changes you make."
That is a GREAT idea!
There is a lot of evidence out there on Cardivascular risk factors to give you some level of confidence in a calculator if you use one consistently.
Interesting tidbit - Framingham,MA a few miles south of Boston is the location of a long running heart study that gave us some of the best data on heart diseases.
Signature
Ajay Nair, WEGO Health Expert
Response from Felisha Griffin, MSPH
There is also a lot of great new tools available to help you evaluate your risk of heart disease or stroke. I worked closely with an epidemiologist at GlaxoSmithKline on several epidemiological studies to evaluate the role of a novel enzyme (Lp-PLA2) in heart disease and stroke. It was very interesting work. The FDA has actually approved the use of the PLAC test to assess the risk of heart disease. This could be a useful tool with the aid of more traditional test.
Signature
Felisha Griffin, MSPH
Response from Julia
My scores with these online tests weren’t very conclusive. I, too, was surprised at the lack of BMI questions. According to these tests I am not very at risk. However, I know that I am, due to my family history, and my current weight.
I just saw a doctor about a lump in my breast, which is a benign mass called a fibroadenoma. The doctor took out a calculator that can predict one’s risk of breast cancer. My risk is quite low.
However, when I told her of my family history of heart problems on both sides of my family (my dad passed away from a heart attack 2 weeks ago, and my grandfather has some heart problems), she said that heart disease is what I need to watch out for.
We hear so much about breast cancer scares, but heart disease is the #1 killer of women!
Signature
Julia Temlyn
WEGO Health Community Moderator
Skin & Beauty, Women’s Health, Sleep Problems, and Pregnancy & Infertility
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